Oscar predictions

The most important awards ceremony in the film world is nearly upon us and, in an entirely unscientific way, I'm going to try and predict the winners of the showy categories. This is based on previous awards, such as the Golden Globes, the Baftas and the Guild awards and my own hunches. Feel free to comment to discuss what you think.

Best supporting actress Adriana Barraza, Babel; Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal; Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls; Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

The 2 actress categories are the easiest of the all the categories to call in one of the most open Oscars in years. Out of the many nominations that Dreamgirls garnered (by dint of being a musical and shutting out all competitors in the Original Song Category), Jennifer Hudson is the only obvious winner. She won the Golden Globes, which had almost the same nomination list and she's been generating a lot of buzz. She also has an underdog story - lost American Idol, was second billing to Beyonce - and there's nothing more compelling to an Oscar voter. A dead cert.

Best supporting actor Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine; Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children; Djimon Hounsou, Blood Diamond; Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls; Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

A tough call this one - Eddie Murphy was getting a lot of notice for Dreamgirls, but that was early in the season, before it got shut out of some major awards. Alan Arkin picked up the BAFTA this weekend and it's a showy role. With Little Miss Sunshine gathering momentum, Arkin could win this. But I'm going to call it for Murphy, just because he's already picked up the Golden Globe and SAG and it's not often that voters change their mind.

Best actor Leonardo DiCaprio, Blood Diamond; Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson; Peter O'Toole, Venus; Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness; Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

This one looks like it should be obvious. Forest Whitaker is another actor who has picked up both the SAG and Golden Globe and, as I may have already mentioned, this makes him a good choice for the Oscar. But I'm going to completely contradict myself and plump for Peter O'Toole. He's well respected, hasn't received an award before and is probably about to die. All good reasons for the voters to give him some sympathy.

Best actress Penelope Cruz, Volver; Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal; Helen Mirren, The Queen; Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada; Kate Winslet, Little Children

Easy peasy - Helen Mirren for sure. Is there an award she hasn't picked up so far? She's also the reason why The Queen won't pick up any other awards on the night - the buzz has been entirely about her performance, which is difficult to ignore and made the film.

Best director Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima; Stephen Frears, The Queen; Paul Greengrass, United 93; Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel; Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Can Scorsese finally get the prize? I'm not convinced, but then I also can't see who else might. Greengrass and Eastwood are the 2 other most likely directors to pick this up, given early buzz and other awards, but the feeling is strong that Scorsese should be finally rewarded and The Departed is a much stronger film than either The Aviator and Gangs of New York. So, cautiously, Scorsese for this one.

Best picture Babel; The Departed; Letters From Iwo Jima; Little Miss Sunshine; The Queen

This is such an open category and it's really hard to predict. Even if Scorsese gets best director, I don't think The Departed can win best picture - it's far too violent a proposition for voters. The most polished film of the lot is The Queen, but as I mentioned before, I think that's too much of a one woman show. So, I'm going to put myself on the line and predict Little Miss Sunshine for the big prize. I'm biased, because it was my favourite film of last year, but there is a feeling it could steal the show, much in the same way that Crash did last year.

Of the the other categories, Pan's Labyrinth should win Best Foreign Film, Pirates of the Caribbean 2 will get Best Special Effects and Marie Antoinette deserves Best Costume. Best Original Screenplay should go to Little Miss Sunshine (I know - biased!), but will probably got to Babel and it would be amazing if Best Adapted Screenplay went to Borat, but I don't think it's likely and Little Children might get it.

Come back on 26th February for a post-mortem of just how wrong I can be!

Terrie